LotRO: Next Expansion Definitely This Year?

On March 14th 2008, Turbine announced the Mines of Moria expansion at Codemasters’ Connect ’08 event in Birmingham, UK. At that event, Turbine also committed themselves to a gruelling content release schedule – four ‘free’ book updates and one paid expansion per year.

So, it’s now May 2009, and we still haven’t had confirmation about this year’s probably-Rohan-themed expansion yet. Does this simply reflect a change in marketing strategy, i.e. they want to milk Book 8 first before shifting focus to the expansion. Perhaps they have simply lacked a convenient high-profile event at which to make the announcement? Or is something else going on. Maybe development isn’t going as well as expected…

In a recent podcast interview with TenTonHammer, LotRO’s Senior Producer, Jeffrey Steefel, was asked about a level cap increase this year (level caps being synonymous with paid expansions). He responded:

“That is absolutely part of our plan for this year.”

While that sounds fairly definite, when reading between the lines of marketing-speak, I interpret it as follows:

“I know we promised one expansion per year, and while we are still aiming to hit that target, there is some doubt about whether we’ll get it all finished in time. The plan hasn’t changed, but we absolutely want to keep our options open regarding a delay if it turns out to be necessary.”

In light of this typically non-committal answer from Mr. Steefel, can we really expect an expansion in 2009? Let’s explore the issue.

Turbine’s business model is fairly unique, in that they offer lifetime subscriptions as well as traditional monthly subscriptions. The benefits of bringing in a couple of year’s worth of subs early must be substantial, but at some point the lifetime sub inevitably pays for itself and a player is getting a free ride. It’s no surprise that lifetime subscriptions have proven very popular with players. However, paid expansions now offer the only means by which Turbine can extract extra cash from those players. They simply can’t afford to take too long over paid expansions if they want to keep that source of revenue flowing, and missing the prime Christmas 2009 buying period would likely hurt eventual sales.

On the other hand, is it even possible to maintain such a challenging content schedule? Lothlorien was initially promised for the Mines of Moria launch, but it slipped until the Book 7 update. The new multi-boss raid was touted for Book 7, but it slipped into Book 8. It is clear that Turbine are running behind on their planned schedule, and this must have some kind of knock-on effect with regards to the development of the next expansion. Players will be expecting a similar amount of content to the Moria expansion, and if there is noticeably less, well, let’s just say it will not be looked upon charitably. A rushed and badly received expansion could also be very damaging to LotRO’s reputation, deterring uptake from potential new players.

An explanation for the book content slippage is that internal focus may have almost completely switched to expansion development. Indeed, this also explains why book updates are getting smaller. Ultimately, the updates just need to have enough content in them to keep a subset of players from getting bored enough to cancel their subscriptions. The expansions are the real payoff for Turbine, and development priorities are likely to reflect that.

So, while I’m still inclined to believe that the expansion will arrive in 2009, I’m certainly not as confident as I was before hearing the above words from Jeffrey Steefel. A delay wouldn’t come as a complete surprise, let’s put it that way.